The latest economic news and market highlights from the UK and abroad.
This week's headlines:
- Fragile Iran ceasefire – Tuesday saw the US and Iran agree a two-week ceasefire, with both sides agreeing to start negotiations around a permanent end to the conflict. Global markets rose and oil prices fell on the news.
- US growth loses momentum – Q4 GDP growth rate has been revised down to 0.5%, on an annualised basis, with falls in investment being a key drag. Consumer spending also slowed more than expected, as did purchases of goods and services.
- China inflation eases – the annual inflation rate fell to 1% in March, down from a multi-year high of 1.3% in February, as prices rises for food slowed and a decline in house prices persisted.
- Euro area retail sales shrink – sales fell 0.2% month-on-month in February despite rising fuel costs, thanks to drops in food, drink, and tobacco. Germany led the pullback, with a more pronounced 0.6% drop.
- UK house prices fall – prices fell 0.5% month-on-month in March as the market lost momentum. Continued uncertainty in the Middle East, and questions over what this means for UK interest rates, appears to be weighing on sentiment.
What this means for financial advisers and clients
As of time of writing, the US-Iran ceasefire remains officially in place, with peace talks in Pakistan planned for the weekend. However, tensions persist, with continued reports of Israeli strikes in Lebanon and restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz – something which Trump demands must be open for the conflict to end.
Global equity markets initially saw a strong rebound on the ceasefire news, but oil prices fell around 15%, The lingering uncertainty and conflicting news flows since the announcement continue to weigh on investors’ minds, causing some later retractions.
We continue to monitor the situation closely. While the ceasefire is positive, we’re aware that this fragile truce may not hold. And it’s certainly no guarantee a permanent peace deal will be reached any time soon.
Chart of the week - who feels oil shocks most in Emerging Markets?
Source: Alpine Macro, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, World Bank
Why’s this worth sharing?
This week’s chart highlights the uneven impact of higher oil prices and reduced flows across Emerging Markets, with large consumers and net importers remaining particularly exposed to supply shocks and geopolitical disruptions.
After a strong start to the year, Emerging Markets as a whole have taken a big hit from the current Iran conflict, given the resulting restrictions on oil and gas flows.
However, reliance on oil and imports isn’t uniform across markets. The chart above helps highlight these differences, plotting individual country exposure based on the intensity of their oil usage (consumption per unit of GDP) compared to reliance on energy imports as a percent of total usage.
Countries in the top right quadrant are the most exposed to the current conflict given their heavy oil usage and large reliance on imports. This includes larger emerging market constituents such as India and South Korea, which have helped push down the wider index.
The Markets
FTSE 100 ceasefire boost
Despite being weighed down by oil and gas stocks - which fell in line with oil prices - the UK market saw broad gains elsewhere following the ceasefire announcement between the US and Iran.
US markets remain optimistic
Despite some volatility on news flows out the Middle East, both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ gained this week on a hope of greater oil supplies through Hormuz and an end to the conflict. Tech stocks also gained given their relative shelter from the war.
Emerging Markets rebound
Emerging Markets saw broad rises following Tuesday’s ceasefire announcement and optimism around the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Despite losing some ground later in the week, most markets still finished firmly in positive territory, with import-reliant markets such as Korea and Taiwan leading the way.
Commodity volatility continues
Oil prices fell substantially on the ceasefire announcement. Gold rose nearly 2% on the hopes that an end to the fighting would help rein-in inflation and interest rate expectations.
| | Weekly Change | YtD Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 1.75% | 7.92% |
| FTSE 250 | 2.79% | -0.27% |
| S&P 500 | 2.37% | 0.19% |
| NASDAQ | 2.30% | -0.20% |
| FTSE Developed Europe Ex-UK | 2.87% | 2.61% |
| FTSE Emerging Markets | 3.61% | 4.46% |
| FTSE Japan | 1.62% | 9.15% |
| Brent Crude | -12.02% | 58.78% |
| Gold Spot | 1.93% | 10.36% |
| UK 10yr Gilt yield | -4bps | +25bps |
| US 10yr Treasury yield | -7bps | +10bps |
Source: Morningstar, exchangerates.org.uk, investing.com and finance.yahoo.com. GBP returns as at close of business on Thursday 9th April 2026.
This article is for financial professionals only. Any information contained within is of a general nature and should not be construed as a form of personal recommendation or financial advice. Nor is the information to be considered an offer or solicitation to deal in any financial instrument or to engage in any investment service or activity. Parmenion accepts no duty of care or liability for loss arising from any person acting, or refraining from acting, as a result of any information contained within this article. All investment carries risk. The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up and investors may get back less than they put in. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.
